Worked examples

The 1986 publication established foundational metrics for methane’s radiative forcing relative to carbon dioxide. The following examples illustrate the application of these findings to quantify global warming potential and atmospheric lifetime impacts.

Example 1: Calculating Global Warming Potential

A common metric is the 100-year Global Warming Potential (GWP100). The 1986 study determined that methane has a GWP100 of approximately 21 compared to CO2. To find the equivalent CO2 mass for a methane emission:

This means 1 tonne of methane exerts the same radiative forcing as 21 tonnes of CO2 over a century.

Example 2: Atmospheric Lifetime Contribution

The 1986 analysis identified methane’s atmospheric lifetime as roughly 12 years. To estimate the cumulative presence of an annual emission:

This steady-state mass drives the instantaneous radiative forcing.

Example 3: Radiative Forcing Impact

The study quantified methane’s contribution to total radiative forcing. If total forcing is 2.5 W/m² and methane accounts for ~20%:

This 0.5 W/m² represents methane’s direct thermal impact on the climate system in the 1986 baseline.

See also

References

  1. Methane Tracker 2024: The Methane Decade
  2. Climate Change 2021: The Physical Science Basis - Chapter 7: The Earth System, Climate Change and Sustainability
  3. Global Methane Pledge
  4. Methane Emissions from the Energy Sector